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Elecciones en EE.UU.: las encuestas ponen en duda el control republicano del Congreso
Los últimos sondeos muestran una ventaja de los demócratas frente al oficialismo de cara a los comicios legislativos.
21 octubre, 2026
A pocos días de las elecciones de medio término del próximo 3 de noviembre de 2026, las principales encuestas en Estados Unidos arrojan un panorama sumamente ajustado. Las mediciones ponen en duda la capacidad del oficialismo para retener el control legislativo frente al avance del Partido Demócrata. La disputa por el Congreso se encuentra en su punto más álgido tras conocerse nuevos sondeos de opinión pública.
Los estudios estadísticos publicados por consultoras independientes reflejan un escenario complejo para el sector gubernamental. Un promedio de encuestas nacionales elaborado por la firma Silver Bulletin ubica a la oposición demócrata al frente de las preferencias con una brecha de cinco puntos sobre sus rivales. Por su parte, la medición de la Universidad de Siena para el diario The New York Times estira esa distancia a lo largo del país en favor de los candidatos opositores.
Esta tendencia coincide con indicadores desfavorables para la gestión presidencial. La imagen de Trump se debilita. Los monitoreos semanales realizados por la encuestadora Ipsos, en conjunto con la agencia Reuters, registran niveles de aprobación al Gobierno que se sitúan en torno al 37 por ciento, una de las cifras más bajas del año. En paralelo, un sondeo del periódico The Washington Post y la cadena ABC News ratifica la pérdida de respaldo en distritos electorales clave.
La contienda en las urnas definirá la composición total de la Cámara de Representantes y renovará un tercio de las bancas del Senado. De confirmarse las proyecciones de las consultoras, el cambio de mayorías en el Capitolio limitaría la capacidad de la administración del presidente Donald Trump para sancionar leyes y aprobar designaciones en los dos años restantes de su mandato.
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